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Will Employment Soften?

Posted on January 12, 2023January 13, 2023 by Kyle de Paolo

One of the significant factors driving inflation has been the strength of the labor market. With unemployment still hovering around all-time lows, wage gains by employees have been nearly two times their longer term average. As the Fed continues its battle to slow the economy and talk of recession looms, where might the employment picture…

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The Rents are too Darn High!

Posted on October 11, 2022October 11, 2022 by Kyle de Paolo

With all eyes on inflation these days, it’s helpful to dig into some of the biggest contributors for perspective on where inflation might be heading. The cost of “shelter” is far and away the highest weighted component of CPI, clocking in at more than a 30% weight of the total CPI number. Interestingly, the shelter…

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Housing Market Update: Signs of Softness

Posted on July 13, 2022 by Kyle de Paolo

Much like the housing market heated up at lightning speed over the last year, it seems to have cooled just as quickly. As the Fed moves swiftly to combat inflation by raising interest rates, housing market dynamics have shifted significantly. Buyer demand has dried up, and prices have stalled their torrent of increases. In my…

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Housing & Rental Markets: Where do we go from here?

Posted on April 13, 2022April 20, 2022 by Kyle de Paolo

The housing market has been the talk of the town over the past year, with home prices rising faster than they did even during the 2000s era bubble. The rental market has now been following a similar path, seeing rental prices rise at the fastest pace in at least 20 years. As the Federal Reserve…

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Democrats Losing Faith

Posted on January 17, 2022January 17, 2022 by Kyle de Paolo

Politics seems to have taken a bit of a backseat these days. Perhaps understandably so, as our current president is a bit more reluctant to take the spotlight than his predecessor. It’s a notable change from Trump’s almost daily twitter rants. This is not to say a lot hasn’t been happening in Washington. Democratic infighting…

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Fed Watch: Taper Time

Posted on October 13, 2021October 13, 2021 by Kyle de Paolo

Apart from covid and inflation, one of the most talked-about issues in financial markets these days is the Fed’s “taper.” People reference the “taper tantrum” of 2013, a period of market turmoil that many think could be upon us. What exactly is the “taper” we are now facing? Should investors be concerned? More generally –…

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KYLE DE PAOLO


@kyledepaolo
Long Story Short is a distilled view on events shaping finance, economics & politics. I’m a research analyst for Mitchell Anthony Capital Management. More about me here.

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